Headline: After steel prices soared by 1000 yuan, the high level was still falling before the Spring Festival. |
2019/9/23
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Domestic steel prices fell violently this week. The weakness of demand, the increase of inventory and the weakening of support of raw material ports. At the same time, in recent years, steel enterprises need to actively prepare for holiday orders. In addition, the recent tightening of capital and other external pressures show that the overall environment of the steel market has deteriorated. The black gold products in the capital market fell completely this week, and five consecutive falls occurred in the week. The decline of Futures Steel was more than 10%. Such a sharp killing has obviously suppressed the coexistence of fear and fear in the spot steel market, which has become the most important factor to break the psychological support of the market. However, although the productivity limit of environmental protection has been significantly upgraded again this week, it has not reversed the downward trend of spot steel price adjustment, which is related to the pressure of steel enterprises themselves and the increase of pessimistic expectations of market mentality. Domestic steel prices continued to soar last week, December 12, should be said to have reached the highest level in the year, and this wave of continuous rise from the beginning of October after the National Day, lasted more than two months, surging more than 1,000 yuan. At this price level, the production of steel enterprises continues to increase, inventory continues to increase, and the advantages of environmental protection supervision forced by haze, the one-size-fits-all of the intermediate frequency furnace and the over-fulfillment of production tasks in various places continue to conceal the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of steel enterprises. Therefore, the spot price of domestic steel will continue to adjust downward in the short term, and the operation of high-level weight-shedding will be relatively beneficial to the performance of later price operation.
Take a look at the performance of the major varieties this week. Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou threaded steel prices fell by more than 200 yuan in a week, Beijing, Tianjin and Guangdong hot rolled coil prices fell by nearly 200 yuan in a week, and the spot prices of medium and heavy plate in Huhan region fell by 130-170 yuan in a week. Cold-rolled coil market performance is relatively strong, Shanghai and Hangzhou prices stable and strong, Beijing and Tianjin prices fell slightly. Tangshan carbon billet spot price from the previous highest 3110-3130 yuan fell to 2800 yuan this week, a decline of 310-330 yuan.
As of December 23, 2016, the Langer Iron and Steel Composite Price Index reached 138.7 points, down 2.34 points from the same period last week; the Langer Steel Long Wood Price Index reached 140.3 points, down 3.65 points from the same period last week; and the Langer Steel Plate Price Index reached 137.9 points, down 1.47 points from the same period last week.
Forecast
For next week's domestic steel price trend before New Year's Day, it should be said that there will be no obvious reversal of the market. From this week's situation of steel enterprises'reserve orders, the overall market sentiment is pessimistic and the enthusiasm for ordering is poor, while the stock pressure of some varieties in major regions is relatively concentrated, and the major households are still in the stage of high drop, and this month is also the last month of the year. Whether in order to complete the agreement task of steel enterprises or face the pressure of repayment by banks, it is relatively difficult for a month, and it is expected that domestic spot steel prices will continue to move towards a lower level next week. The price of some finished products may be expected to break the cost line. However, in view of the steady recovery of domestic economic growth, the improvement of manufacturing performance and overall investment in 2017, and the further aggravation of the task of eliminating backward capacity in the steel and coal industries, the overall expectations of the investment market for the steel industry and steel prices are relatively good. Therefore, domestic steel prices such as If violence falls again, market takers will reappear. At present, it is predicted that this node will appear after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival.
First, steel companies will still be forced to cut prices this week and next week to prepare holidays orders. Considering the order time of steel companies, next week will also be a major focus period for next year's order signing. The main agents will still take the price reduction as the main operation of resources. First, they will get a rebate for the completion of the agreement volume; second, they will take the rebate for the completion of the agreement volume. Return funds to sign next year's contract, the third is for the bank's capital expiration pressure;
Second, before the Spring Festival, major steel enterprises will generally reserve more than 50 days of orders. Although most of the recent orders received by steel enterprises are not large, the signing agreements that will be obtained next week, or some of the major investors who enter the market at low prices, will support the emergence of a certain market-boosting operation for steel enterprises. Considering from the angle of production of steel enterprises, the production cost of Tangshan plain carbon billet basically remains around 2700 yuan. At present, the price of plain carbon billet has been adjusted to 2800 yuan, which has directly approached the marginal range of production cost of steel billet. It may restrict the operation of continuous price reduction of second and third-line steel enterprises.
Third, the conjecture of environmental protection. This week, the domestic haze lasted for a long time and had a larger impact. The environmental protection supervision was also upgraded, but the overall effect of the treatment was still poor. In the meantime, it is also found that some enterprises will be accountable again if they fail to limit or stop production according to the regulations. Especially, the haze around Beijing and surrounding areas will continue. Whether the further increase of environmental protection will form a coincidence point with the psychological bottom price of the merchants reached after the steep fall, and then superimpose the market's not pessimistic expectation of the overall situation in 2017. The probability of a pull-up operation can still exist.
Fourth, capital. In addition to low inventory support, environmental hype and soaring raw material port prices, domestic steel prices this year have also witnessed a significant increase in demand for financial purchases. At the end of the year, the pressure of funds from all sides is great, and the shortage of money in the near future is also traceable. This is also the reason why the domestic steel price before New Year's Day is not beneficial to the steel price from the point of view of the support from the capital side or the demand for funds from the spot operation side. It is still a big probability that the steel price will continue to fall. But after New Year's Day, the market
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